The Odds-On Favorite – Week 12 NFL Picks (Early Games)

Not our usual pic, but why Not?

So… About that nice comeback in before Week 11’s picks… yeah, it kind of fell by the wayside after the combined 7-9 I put on the board last week. 73-83-4 on the season now, but we’re gonna have to have a little talk about those numbers…

Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas or Atlantic City. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past – I’m sorry in advance. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. If you’re playing against me in the Pigskin Pick’Em Pool, don’t expect all my picks to match these – different lines could mean different picks. All lines from Bodog and accurate as of the time this was typed – 9pm Wednesday. Home teams in CAPS. That about covers it.)

After I jumped up and down with my arms in the air celebrating Troy Polamolu’s spread-saving defensive touchdown to end the Steelers/Chargers game last week, I was suddenly crushed to hear that the referees completely blew the call and destroyed the spread. The confirmation from the NFL the following day only served as proof that thousands of gamblers worldwide got SCREWED.

Now, I’m not one to get involved with most conspiracy theories. I don’t believe in the grassy knoll, I do believe that we landed on the moon about 40 years ago, and I don’t put any stock into the idea that the US Government was behind the September 11^th attacks.

But… something was not right in that Steelers game. I hate the Steelers. I hate the Chargers. I didn’t actually have any live bets involving that game, just my weekly numbers. And even I could see that there was something uneven going on there.

I watched the entire game and couldn’t get over how unevenly the game was called. San Diego had 2 calls for 5 yards. Pittsburgh had 13 calls for 115 yards. And there were at least a handful of calls on the Steelers that were, at best, “touch” calls.

So, I’m not saying that there was something hinky going on there. But when the team that is the favorite gets that many calls against them during the game, and then suddenly gets a miracle score as time expires to cover a spread, only to have that score suddenly erased from the books on an erroneous call… I mean, you’d have to be blind to miss that.

In other words, I’m calling that game a push in the final standings. Let’s fix the record: 73-82-5 for the 2008 season to date. Now, onto the pick for this week’s “Crappy Thursday Game of the Week”…

Bengals (+11) over STEELERS: Cincy has suddenly not lost for a month – I know, I’m just as shocked as the rest of you. But with a win, a bye week and a tie, the Bengals haven’t lost since getting decimated in Houston 35-6 in Week 8. They’re coming off of a “moral victory” in the tie with Philly last week. Pittsburgh had one hell of a slugfest with the Chargers capped by a final-minute emotional comeback win. Both teams now have only 3 days to recover for an intra-divisional game in freezing cold and possibly snowy Pittsburgh… I’m sorry, I’m taking the points.

As for some other lines that don’t seem quite right early in the betting week:

Bills (-3) at CHIEFS: Buffalo’s lost six straight, so the oddsmakers are getting off the early season bandwagon. Might be a good week to jump back on.

Eagles (+1) at RAVENS: Baltimore just got embarrassed by one NFC East opponent. I wouldn’t bet on it happening in back to back weeks.

Redskins (-3.5) at SEAHAWKS: Seattle has had two games this year where they’ve allowed under 20 points. They won both games while holding their opponents to 13 points both times. In eight losses, they’ve averaged 29 points allowed while only scoring 15. Washington’s defense is good enough to hold Seattle down, and if Clinton Portis is healthy the Skins have got more than enough to cover the line. Let’s see if it moves before Friday.

Until then…

Lata.