The Odds-On Favorite – Week 11 NFL Picks (Early Games)

Tough to wipe the smile off my face this week. A tie atop the Two Minute Warning S & F Challenge at 11-2, a tie for third in the Pigskin Pick’Em (seriously – who the hell are R. Agnew, K. Miller and J Manahan? You guys are sick.) And then the 8-5 in the Week 10 picks here to pump the overall stats up to 66-73-4. I love when things start to fall into place. Week 10 is usually my turnaround week – let’s see just how far we can go with it, starting with this week’s early game.

Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas or Atlantic City. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past – I’m sorry in advance. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. If you’re playing against me in the Pigskin Pick’Em Pool, don’t expect all my picks to match these – different lines could mean different picks. All lines from Bodog and accurate as of the time this was typed – 10pm Wednesday. Home teams in CAPS. That about covers it.)

PATRIOTS (-3.5) over Jets: All New England homerism aside, this seems like a strange number. The Jets are all over the place this season, blowing out some teams and hanging in there or getting crushed by the good ones. They got obliterated by San Diego and lost in Oakland, two teams with a combined 6-12 record. And their third loss? A home defeat to these same Patriots in Week 2. Remember the hype before that game? Matt Cassel hasn’t started a game since high school. The Patriots are over the hill. Brett Favre’s application for sainthood should be filed after this blowout win in his NY Home debut. But then the Pats went out and held the Jets to 10 points and 279 total yards. So… why should they only be a 3.5 point favorite at home when they’ve already won by 9 on the road? OK, maybe not “all homerism aside”. How about “most homerism aside”? Will that work?

As for the rest of the lines on the board, let’s find some more ways to make money…

Titans (-3) at Jags: I love that the oddsmakers aren’t believers in Tennessee yet. Or maybe that most of America hasn’t wised up and put their money on the right side of the line.

Lions (+14) at Panthers: Carolina just barely covered a 10-point line against a team just as bad as the Lions when they went to Oakland last week. I’m not confident about having to give up four more points, even if it’s a home game against the worst team in the league. Let’s see how much this moves, if at all.

There are 4 more games with no lines available for injuries, and of the games that are out there only two Sunday/Monday games have a line of under 5-points. To me, at this point in the season, lines that high are simply astounding. But this season, very little is making sense.

21 Responses

  1. Titans/Jags is a division game and the Jags are HOME dawgs. Neither team has an devastating offense. Titans should cover, but those (IMO) are why the line is so low.

    Lions are due for a win. Pantheres are do for a let-down game (it’s been like 3 weeks since their last one). 14pts is a lot. Then again, the Panthers DEF could easily cover the 14 on their own.

    I’m undecided about tonight’s game. I like the Under, but can’t pick a team.

  2. the lions will not win this year

  3. detroit will beat tampa.

  4. dallas will beat the giants

  5. shit…we will go over 100k hits today maybe

  6. by happy hour, fursur.

  7. holy crap. no smallville tonight!! it is a new episode. how can they pre-empt a new episode?

  8. Agreed on the under tonight. After a week of 60+, it’s in the 30’s today, cold & rainy. Expect a crapfest of field goals tonight.

  9. Well, ok, so it’s really in the 40’s, but it feels colder.

    Foxboro, MA

  10. Guess I won’t be watching the game tonight. I just found out that the Pats/Jets game is being shown on a local station in MA and a local station in NH, but not on a local station in ME. Apparently Maine isn’t considered part of New England.

    I hate you NFL Network. I hate you soooo much.

  11. Aw, dude. that sucks. There’s a bunch of hack websites that broadcast stuff. I watched the Roy Jones fight on the internet the other night… i’m sure that the Pats game will be on somewhere

  12. the game will be on nfl.com tonight.

  13. Yea, that hack site.

  14. I thought NFL.com played the games! Looks like my son will be allowed to watch Noggin shows on the “good TV” as I sit back in the computer room! LOL

    /just kidding
    //not really, but I’ll go back and forth
    ///the spousal unit can watch Noggin with him

  15. You are all welcome to come over to my humble abode on Long Island where we get the game on channel 11. (711 for high definition on our cable system.) I don’t mind a slop fest of field goals as long as the Jets win. I don’t even mind if they win because of a bad call, lucky play or any other event.

    Of course I will have to boot the rest of the family when they want to watch the Office, 30 Rock, etc. I need to watch this on my high def TV.

  16. /Laughing at the thought of 30 bloggers showing up at your door, hungry at 730pm, chanting, “We want beer”.

  17. Jen, we have become more of a Sprout home now.

  18. Hey Marco, nothing a few pizza pies and a quick trip to the beverage distributor won’t solve!

  19. sparty, I can’t watch sprout anymore!!! Calliou and Noddy slip in there and send me to the looney bin. LOL The Goodnight Show chick, Nina, gets on my nerves…I can’t take it when people talk in the voice that she does. (Yes, I am a beeyotch and I don’t use that ghey tone of voice unless I am being a smart-ass.)

  20. Jen-i want to kill Ruby from Max and Ruby. I hate her.

  21. cycledan~ My flight lands at 7:30…is the shuttle service available?

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