The Odds-On Favorite – Week 10 NFL Picks

Well, that was an inauspicious start to Week 10. The Cleveland Browns did Cleveland type things, allowing a major 4^th-quarter comeback for the second straight week. This time, they gave up 21 points in the 4^th to fall by four, and thus blow my initial pick of the week. Let’s see if the remaining picks are a little better.

Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas or Atlantic City. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past – I’m sorry in advance. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. If you’re playing against me in the Pigskin Pick’Em Pool, don’t expect all my picks to match these – different lines could mean different picks. All lines from Bodog and accurate as of the time this was typed – 10am Friday. Home teams in CAPS. That about covers it.)

After last night’s game, the record slipped back a little to 58-69-4. I’m feeling a good week coming up, just not sure when it will arrive. Maybe it’s stuck in traffic.

Jaguars (-7) over LIONS: I don’t think the Jags will blow the Lions out of the water, but they should be able to win this game by a touchdown. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this was a push. I’m almost regretting my decision to release Fred Taylor this week in fantasy, but not really.

Titans (-3) over BEARS: The Titans’ last real test for about a month. If this game were in Tennessee, the Titans would be 8-point favorites. But in Chicago, they’re only giving three. That’s fine by me, as they should still manage to win by 7+. Especially if the Bears are stuck giving Rex Grossman 100% of the snaps.

PATRIOTS (-4) over Bills: Last week’s loss in Indy notwithstanding, the Pats have suddenly woken up and are playing the type of football they’re capable of. And if not for an asinine penalty by TE David Thomas late in the 4^th, New England would probably be riding a three-game winning streak. The Bills, however, haven’t really been the same since Trent Edwards was lost with a concussion. They’ve lost three out of four, and none of those three were even within one TD. Pats win & cover, and don’t give up first in the AFC East the rest of the year.

FALCONS (-1) over Saints: I’m quickly adopting the “don’t bet against Atlanta at home” philosophy this season. Considering they’re 3-0 in the Georgia Dome so far, I like my chances.

Rams (+9) over JETS: I know, I know. I picked the Rams to win outright last week, and they promptly got blown out by 21. I’m not picking them to win outright this week, just to cover the 9. The Jets have no answer for Torry Holt & Donnie Avery on the outside, so if the offensive line can give Marc Bulger enough time, he can hit the deep route and keep St. Louis close.

Seahawks (+8.5) over DOLPHINS: Too many points to give up. Miami hasn’t blown out anybody besides the Pats in Week three. More importantly, Miami has been playing to the level of their opponents all season long. Even with the West to East flight jinx that seems to be plaguing West Coast teams this year, Seattle hasn’t really looked horrible since their Week 5 loss to the Giants. Even last week against the Eagles, they were able to hold them to only 26 points. Against a weak Miami defense, the Seahawks should be able to put up enough to stay within 9.

Packers (+2) over VIKINGS: The Packers need this game. They’ve got three straight against some of the best in the NFC coming up over the rest of the month – this one is pretty important to them. Minnesota is just too inconsistent for me to rely on them for a cover – allowed 21 to Houston, scored 41 on Chicago, needed a boneheaded safety to beat Detroit… their last three games haven’t exactly instilled betting confidence.

Ravens (-1) over TEXANS: Seems like this line should be higher. Houston is one of only two AFC teams outside of the Western division to have already allowed 200+ points on the season (213). You’d think Baltimore could put up enough to cover a 1-point line.

RAIDERS (+10) over Panthers: If I’m giving up double-digits to a home dog this late in the season, I’m either drunk or the game is in Detroit.

Chiefs (+15) over CHARGERS: I could almost say the same here and just change “to a home dog” to “in a divisional game”, but let’s think of something better to write… hmmmm… The Chargers are bad. The Chiefs are worse. But not two touchdowns worse. Wow, so eloquent. I’m a regular Bill Shakespeare.

STEELERS (-3.5) over Colts: (Line from ESPN.com) This game is exhibit A in the case to have flex games start as soon as Thursday football starts. There’s no reason this shouldn’t be a primetime game instead of Arizona/San Fran. Most major sportsbooks have pulled this line waiting on the Willie Parker news. No matter – Indy’s run defense hasn’t stopped anybody this year. Parker, Mewelde Moore, Dookie Davenport, hell – Pittsburgh could put Jerome Bettis or Franco Harris in the backfield and they’d still probably put 80+ yards on the board.

Giants (+3) over EAGLES: I’m fairly perplexed by this line. The Giants have a total of one bad game on their resume this year, a complete head-scratcher against Cleveland a month ago. Not to mention that before that game in Cleveland they hadn’t lost a road game since Week 1 of 2007 in Dallas, including last year’s playoffs. I mean… what possible reason could there be for the Giants to be underdogs? A typo?

CARDINALS (-9.5) over 49ers: Arizona has had a history of coughing up the big primetime games when they should win easily, but this team seems different. Kurt Warner looks like the Kurt Warner that began this decade. He’s got three top-notch receivers and a solid running game behind him (even if Edgerrin James looks like he’s running underwater half the time). San Francisco is probably still one or two years away, almost assuredly now that they’ve changed directions at QB and head coach.

RECAP: Jags / Titans / PATS / FALCONS / Rams / Seahawks / Packers / Ravens / RAIDERS / Chiefs / STEELERS / Giants / CARDINALS

Lata.