The Odds-On Favorite – Week 8 NFL Picks

Ever get into a funk of mediocrity? Like, for a long time you’re just hanging on the cusp of either falling off the edge of something or turning it all around and having everything go in your favor? That’s where I’m sitting right now. It’s like I’m one of those crazy “unicycle on a tightrope while juggling flaming bowling pins or balancing plates on a stick that’s resting on my forehead” guys at the circus – I’m either going to make it through to the end and come out just fine or else fall to my doom.

Now, if that lead and photo didn’t get you pumped and jacked for this week’s picks, nothing will…

Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas or Atlantic City. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past – I’m sorry in advance. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. If you’re playing against me in the Pigskin Pick’Em Pool, don’t expect all my picks to match these – different lines could mean different picks. All lines from Bodog and accurate as of the time this was typed – 3pm Thursday. Home teams in CAPS. That about covers it.)

After two nice tournament wins in two weeks, and a handful of successful sessions of cash game poker, my luck has gone into hiding and my bankroll is quite unhappy with me. Remember Phil Hellmuth’s infamous quote: “If there weren’t luck involved, I would win every time.” Well, after this past two week stretch I suddenly know exactly what that feels like.

Then there’s the football picks. I keep sitting at just below the .500 mark weekly, dragging the overall numbers well below where I’m used to seeing them. On pure wins alone last week, I would have picked up three additional games. But since the Bucs, Skins and Texans all managed to win without covering, I’m stuck with a 6-8 record in Week 7 and a 43-57-2 mark overall.

For the record, I’ve been picking straight up winners with no spread just out of boredom and to test a gambling strategy on money lines. I didn’t pick any games Week 1, but in the six weeks since then, I’ve gotten 48 games correct. Let’s just say I’ve decided to stay away from gambling on spreads for awhile and just pick on money line alone.

Raiders (+8) over RAVENS: I don’t think there’s too many situations where I trust the Ravens to cover an eight point spread. I love their defense, but when your starting runningback is more likely to leave the game with an injury than play all four quarters, and your QB has 2 TD’s and 7 INT’s through his first six career starts… it doesn’t exactly instill confidence about the offense in the minds of the betting public.

Chargers (-3) over Saints: Let’s face it – this game is in London. There is no home team. As such, the Chargers are the better team right now – even if they have exactly one “quality” win this year, not to mention a loss to Miami on their resume. I really think their first two games got into their heads; Rivers & Tomlinson are both emotional players, and a loss on the last play of regulation followed by a loss by a blatantly blown call could have knocked the wind out of them. They’re the better team in this game, but I could see them finishing 8-8 this year.

Chiefs (+14) over JETS: I’ll modify the line I wrote from Week 4’s Dallas/Washington game: “There is no reason the Jets shouldn’t win this game by three touchdowns. Which is exactly why I’m picking the Chiefs to cover.” Think about it – the Chiefs are a 1-5 team on the road, missing their starting QB and starting RB, on pace to be colossally bad on offense (75 total points in six games). The Jets are a legitimate playoff contender right now coming off a bad overtime loss to the Raiders in a game they should have dominated; they’re out for blood. I just can’t see any reason to give up 14-points, especially when you can expect one or two bad turnovers from New York in every game this season (and by “New York”, I mean “Brett Favre”).

Bills (-2) over DOLPHINS: Stupidest line of the week. Second-best team in the AFC heading to face a 2-4 team that just allowed 27 points to Baltimore.

COWBOYS (-3.5) over Bucs: (Line from ESPN Pick’em) This has to be the game that makes or breaks Dallas’ season. A loss here puts them at .500 and at least 2 games behind Washington with only half the season left. I think if they’re smart they keep the game plan very simple – short passes by Brad Johnson and lots – lots – of Marion Barber. Of course, Jerry Jones might be sabotaging the season on purpose to have a reason to put Jason Garrett in charge in 2009. Who knows.

Falcons (+9) over EAGLES: I made the mistake of not believing the Falcons could cover a big line on the road once this season already. Not going to do it twice. Especially not after they come off a bye week. The Eagles have a lot of weapons back in uniform this week – Kevin Curtis, Reggie Brown and possibly Brian Westbrook – but the Falcons have enough offense to keep this game close, or maybe even win it outright.

PATRIOTS (-7.5) over Rams: If this game were in St. Louis, I’d have a much harder time making this pick. For all the talk about “which Rams team is showing up this week?” a lot of people are missing the equally disconcerting “Which Patriots team is showing up this week?” After obliterating an extremely week Denver defense, New England gets to face a Rams team that had allowed 147 points through their first four games before allowing only 31 total points the past two weeks. Let’s just hope the Pats have enough runningbacks in uniform by game time, or else we might be subjected to four quarters of Matt Cassell “airing it out” – or doing whatever it is he does with the football.

PANTHERS (-4) over Cardinals: Carolina and Arizona might be two of the most schizophrenic teams in the NFL. Neither team has more than a 2-game winning streak yet this year, though both are at least two games over .500. Both look like legitimate playoff contenders, though I wouldn’t feel too comfortable betting on either of them in one game if my life depended on it. I just don’t know what to make of either of them, so I’m taking the home favorite and crossing my fingers.

Redskins (-8) over LIONS: After last week’s ridiculous backdoor cover against the Texans, I probably shouldn’t be so quick to assume the Lions will get their doors blown off when they face the Skins. The difference is, Houston didn’t have the defense to slow down the Lions desperation passing game – Calvin Johnson: 2 catches, 158 yards – the Redskins not only can slow down the pace of the game on defense, but they have the running attack to control the clock and manage methodical drives.

Browns (+7) over JAGUARS: If this is the week that makes or breaks Dallas’ season, this might be the game that makes or breaks Romeo Crennell as the Browns’ head coach. With the dissention from Kellen Winslow, the lack of focus from Braylon Edwards, and the underachievement from Derek Anderson, the Browns’ offense is in complete disarray. Their defense has been respectable, allowing only 106 points through six games – fourth best in the AFC. But it’s time the Browns step up and score some points; this would be a good week to do it with Winslow suspended. Like the Giants did to Seattle a couple weeks ago when they benched Plaxico Burress, go out and prove you can put up big numbers without the “marquee” guy in the lineup.

Giants (+3) over STEELERS: This is one of those “gametime decision” games that hamstrings bettors during the season. Without Willie Parker, I don’t like the Steelers’ chances in this game. New York’s D-Line is fast enough to fill gaps and stop Mewelde Moore at the line. But Parker has the type of speed that can burst through a hole before it gets clogged by guys like Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka. If Parker is 100%, I think this game is a lot closer. But without him in the backfield, and with the current state of the Pittsburgh offensive line, The Giants should be able to roll through this game.

Seahawks (+5) over 49ERS: Until the Bengals play the Lions, this will stand as the 2008 Battle for last place. What a shitty game. Thank God this isn’t on in Prime Time; though I doubt the Phillies / Rays Game 4 will be a barnburner either.

TEXANS (-10) over Bengals: At least Bengals fans can look forward to getting this guy with the #1 overall pick next April… Other than that, I’ve got nothing else to say about this game besides this: Start every available Texan in fantasy football this week. Only Denver, San Fran & Detroit have allowed more points than the Bengals’ 182; two of those three teams are below .500, and Denver should be 2-5 right now. By the way – do you realize that right now, there are five teams in the NFL with a legitimate chance to allow more than double the points they’ll score during the season? KC is already there, Detroit, St. Louis, Oakland and San Fran are all getting close…

TITANS (-4) over Colts: And then there’s teams like Tennessee and Pittsburgh, both of whom have yet to allow 90 points. For the Titans, the 66 points in six games is the biggest reason they’re the only undefeated team left in the NFL. This week, the mere thought of Chris Johnson and Lendale White shredding Indy’s Swiss cheese running defense makes me drool.

RECAP: Raiders / Chargers / Chiefs / Bills / COWBOYS / Falcons / PATRIOTS / PANTHERS / Redskins / Browns / Giants / Seahawks / TEXANS / TITANS

Wow, I wrote too many words there. Hope you all got this far.

Lata.