The Odds-On Favorite: Super Bowl Pick

Sadly, she won't be smiling this weekend...

This is it. The last hurrah. The “Big Game”. The single reason why there will never be a Super Bowl held within the Las Vegas city limits. There’s just too much gambling to be done.

The Super Bowl is the biggest event of the year when it comes to money changing hands. So much money moved in the final quarter of last year’s Super Bowl, when the Patriots took the lead, then coughed it up to the Giants (in the process allowing a score in the final 2:00 of regulation) that some books had near riots break out.

This year, Sparty has demanded a full break down of every possible bet, but let’s be honest – you don’t want that. I printed out every prop bet available from Bodog – it was 84 pages long. What I can do is pick out a lucky 13 of the very best prop bets, money line bets, and straight up stupidity and offer you my take on all of it… after the jump.

Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas or Atlantic City. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past – I’m sorry in advance. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. All lines from Bodog are accurate as of the time this was typed – 9am Thursday. Some lines taken from the big board at the Mirage Sportsbook, and some are just too stupid to announce where they’re from. Home teams in CAPS. That about covers it.)

Coin Toss: Ah, this one’s a toss up. It’s the only time fans really get excited about a commemorative coin rotating in the air. For gambling purposes, there’s a lot to take into account. On the one hand, the heads side traditionally has a little less metal, therefore weighing less and less likely to end up facing down. But then there’s the rumor that, in fact, “Tails never fails”. So you have to factor that in as well. And since this is an Internet blog, we’re all about the rumors. The Pick: Tails (-105)

Puppy Bowl V: I just don’t see anyway I can pass on taking the home dog in this one… Thank you! I’ll be here all week!

Lingerie Bowl VI: Really, we’re all winners here. By the way, if you couldn’t tell from the name, that link is probably NSFW.

Over/Under on halftime length: This is actually a real bet in many sportsbooks. They calculate the real time from the 0:00 reading in the second quarter until the third quarter clock starts after the kickoff. I can’t remember which game it was, but there was a controversy once when the second half kickoff went out of bounds, so the clock didn’t start until the first play – after the TV timeout – and added three minutes to the realtime clock. I don’t see that happening this year. The Pick: Under (41.5 Minutes)

Which team receives the opening kickoff: I think this one should be easy – either way, I think the Cardinals get the ball first. If they win the toss, they’ll be looking to let their offense loose on the field. If the Steelers win the toss, I think they’ll be looking to make a statement with their defense and still get the ball for the second half. Weather issues could change the thinking of each team, but I really see it playing out this way. The Pick: Cardinals (-135).

First commercial after opening kickoff: The odds-on favorites are Anheuser-Busch with a Bud Light commercial (5/2). That seems like a good bet to me – I can’t remember a Super Bowl when Bud Light didn’t kick off the commercial festivities. Also on the board are Southwest Airlines (3/1), CareerBuilder.com (5/1), Geico (5/1), and Toyota (7/1). NBC Network promos apparently don’t count, which is good – there’s not a doubt in my mind we’ll see plenty of Dateline NBC, NBC Nightly News, and “Heroes” promos. The Pick: Bud Light (5/2)

Will Kurt Warner break Joe Montana’s all-time Super Bowl Passing yards (1142) record? Now, obviously the bet is not whether or not Warner will throw for 1142+ yards in this game. I think the Steelers defense is good enough to stop that. But Warner needs 364 yards to top 1142 in career Super Bowls. I think he’ll get it in garbage time trying to make up points. The Pick: YES (+400).

Total Passing Yards: The odds are lying on Kurt Warner throwing for somewhere between 246-299 yards (13/10 odds) and Ben Roethlisberger going off for the same (7/5). We already know how I feel about Warner, and I think Big Ben is probably up in the 300 range as well. The Picks: Warner 351+ (4/1), Roethlisberger 300-350 (4/1).

Number of players to throw a pass during game: Seems like this should be a simple bet of two players – both starting QBs (-600 on the money line).   But keep in mind – both teams have legitimate NFL quarterbacks as backups, so one violent hit could theoretically lead to a respectable backup coming off the bench for one series.  And the Cardinals have proven they’re not afraid to pull out all the stops and run the occasional trick play in these playoffs.  So the lines for three players throwing a pass (+130), four (+270) and five or more (+400) aren’t horribly out there.  Still, play it safe.  The Pick: Two Players (-600).

Player to score first TD in the game: I love big payouts, so it’s extremely tempting to take one of the bigger lines (Roethlisberger at 18/1, Polamolu at 20/1, Warner at 25/1) with a small bet, and then take the more sensible lines with the big bets. The Picks: Willie Parker (5/1), Tim Hightower (15/2), Heath Miller (17/2).

Player to make first reception in the game: This is one of those bets that just screams “Take the easy pick”; in this case Larry Fitzgerald at 2/1 or Anquan Boldin and Hines Ward at 3/1. But since I think the Cardinals are getting the ball first, I think the Steelers defense will force Kurt Warner into a check-down very early. The Picks: Tim Hightower or Edgerrin James (10/1), Leonard Pope (20/1)

Player to make first reception for the Steelers: Much easier. I actually see Hines Ward being more of a decoy throughout this game, coming off the knee injury. But I think if nothing else, they get him the first catch for sentimental value (more on this later). The Pick: Hines Ward (3/2).

Player to record most receiving yards: Obviously, the no-brainer is Larry Fitzgerald. But with all the hype surrounding him coming into his first Super Bowl, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers key in on him on defense to shut him down, and he was an afterthought by the time it’s all over. Personally, I love the line on Nate Washington here. He’s got big-time speed and reasonably good hands – I can easily see him busting a 70-yarder at some point to pad his stats. And at 7/1, he’s got a great risk/reward number. The Pick: Nate Washington (7/1).

Super Bowl XLIII MVP: I love that the two kickers are 75/1 odds in this game. You’re telling me that Jeff Reed or Neil Rackers couldn’t kick four FGs including a game winner? Yeah, you’re probably right. Well, since this pick almost definitely gives away my game pick, let’s just make it. The Pick: Ben Roethlisberger (2/1).

And now, for our feature presentation…

Super Bowl XLIII – Steelers @ CARDINALS: Listen, before I ever saw a line – hell, before a line was ever established – I made a prediction in the comments section of the Championship Game Live Comments. Rather than bore you all with insight and analysis on this, I’m going to break it down with a Peter King-style “Thoughts I Think I Thought” about Super Bowl XLIII…

• Whatever happens in this game, Kurt Warner is going to the Hall of Fame. A win here just gets him in on the first ballot.
• Larry Fitzgerald is not going to be the superhuman talent that he has been in the past weeks. Dick LeBeau will not allow it.
• Brett Favre… whoops, sorry. Got a little too into the PK mode.
• Pittsburgh’s offensive line is going to get the snot kicked out of them, leading to a very unhappy Willie Parker. Big Ben will likely be sacked 4-7 times.
• The ex-Steelers coaches will make Roethlisberger’s life hell for at least the first quarter, until Pittsburgh makes some adjustments to help him out.
• Anquan Boldin will make at least one monster catch in this game, whether it’s a simple 12-yard slant on a third and 10 or a 40-yard bomb on the sideline when he just decides “I’m catching this and you’re not stopping me.”
• Hines Ward will not have an impact on this game, if he plays at all – that knee is a lot worse than anybody is letting on. And if the Steelers win the game, I think Ward walks away a la Jerome Bettis.
• Tampa Bay is going to be Pittsburgh South this weekend. Don’t be surprised if Primanti Bros. opens a satellite location for just one week.
• I’m backing off this statement just a little bit. Arizona is going to keep this game interesting for awhile, but in the end I think Pittsburgh is just too good.

So, I guess what I’m saying here, is the Steelers are going to end up with one for the other thumb after this game.  The only question now is the line.

I picked a 27-20 Pittsburgh victory before the line opened at Steelers (-7) and the Over/Under was set at 47. Neither line has moved a tick in almost two weeks since I wrote it, so I guess I’m betting on a couple of pushes. The Picks: Steelers (-7) and Over (47).

That’s it for me for the 2008/09 NFL season. Even I’m not enough of a degenerate to bet on the Pro Bowl. You’ll see me back here for the occasional NBA or MLB post just to kill time leading up to the 2009 NFL season. It’s been a fun ride, even if it wasn’t a winning one.

Lata.